Izvestiya of Saratov University.

Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics

ISSN 1816-9791 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9005 (Online)

For citation:

Bogomolov A. S. Analysis of the Ways of Occurrence and Prevention of Critical Combinations of Events in Man-machine Systems. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, 2017, vol. 17, iss. 2, pp. 219-230. DOI: 10.18500/1816-9791-2017-17-2-219-230

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0).
Published online: 
Full text:
(downloads: 60)

Analysis of the Ways of Occurrence and Prevention of Critical Combinations of Events in Man-machine Systems

Bogomolov Alexey Sergeevich, Saratov State University

Models, methods and algorithms are proposed for analyzing the processes of development and preventing critical combinations of events of various kinds that lead to accidents and catastrophes in man-machine and organizational systems. Critical combinations are combinations of events that are individually relatively harmless, but in combination lead to an accident. In technogenic systems, such events are individual operator errors, equipment failures and adverse environmental effects. To investigate such combinations and identify measures to prevent them, the approaches of probabilistic safety analysis are used. Logical trees are constructed, the minimum sections of which are considered as models of critical combinations of events. For minimal sections, graphs of events and systems of differential equations are constructed, from the solutions of which one can determine the probability of realizing a particular minimum section, and also the intensity of measures to reduce these probabilities, which should be undertaken at different time intervals for the given system. As an example, situations associated with the emergence of critical combinations of events leading to fires in the engine of a twin-engine aircraft and its subsequent emergency landing are analyzed.

  1. Novozhilov G. V., Neymark M. S., Tsesarskiy L.G. Bezopasnost’ poleta samoleta. Koncepciya i tekhnologiya [The Aircraft flight safety. The concept and technology]. Мoscow, Mashinostroenie, 2003. 144 p. (in Russian).
  2. Rezchikov A. F., Bogomolov A. S. The Critical Combinations of events are a causes of accidents in Man-Machine Systems. Management of Large-Scale System Development MLSD’2015 : Proc. Seventh Intern. Conf. Moscow, ICS RAS, 2015, vol. 1, pp. 130–135 (in Russian).
  3. Novozhilov G. V., Rezchikov A. F., Neymark M. S., Bogomolov A. S., Tsesarskiy L. G., Filimonyuk L. Yu. The Problem of Events Critical Combination. „Crew – Airplane-Air – Traffic Controller“ Systems. Polet, 2015, no. 2, pp. 10–16 (in Russian).
  4. State Standard 27.31-95 (IEC 812-1985). Dependability in technics. Failure mode, effects and criticality analisys. Basic principles. Moscow, Standartinform, 1997. 12 p. (in Russian).
  5. Ostreykovsky V. A., Shvyryaev Yu. V. Bezopasnost’ atomnyh stancij. Veroyatnostnyj analiz [Safety of nuclear power stations. Probabilistic analysis]. Moscow, Fizmatlit, 2008, 352 p. (in Russian).
  6. Safety Management Manual (SMM). Document ICAO 9859 AN/474. Third Edition / International Civil Aviation Organization, 2013. Available at: https://www.icao.int/safety/SafetyManagement/Documents/Doc.9859.3rd%20Ed... (accessed 15, February, 2017).
  7. The management and implementation of safety assessment methods for airborne systems and equipment ARP-4761. SAE International. Aerospace Sector. Moscow, Aviaizdat, 2010. 265 p. (in Russian).
  8. The Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC). Available at: http://www.mak-iac.org/rassledovaniya/ (accessed 23, October, 2016) (in Russian).
  9. Rezchikov A. F., Tverdohlebov V. A. Cause-and-Effect Complexes for Modeling of Pro- cesses in Complicated Systems. Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie, 2007, iss. 7, pp. 1–9. (in Russian).
  10. Rezchikov A. F., Tverdohlebov V. A. Cause-and-Effect Complexes of Interaction in Production Processes. Control Sciences, 2010, iss. 3, pp. 51–59 (in Russian).
  11. Sholomov K. I. The complex of simulation programs and analysis of critical combinations of events based on construction and processing of dynamic Cause-And-Effect Trees. Mathematical Methods in Technics and Technologies – ММТТ-28. Saratov, Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov Publ., 2015, pp. 300–304 (in Russian).
  12. Rezchikov A., Kushnikov V., Ivaschenko V., Bogomolov A., Filimonyuk L., Kachur K. Control of the air transportation system with flight safety as the criterion. Automation control theory perspectives in intelligent systems : Proc. 5th Computer Science On-line Conference, 2016 (CSOC2016), vol. 3. Shpringer Intern. Publ., 2016, pp. 423–432. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33389-2_40.
  13. Rezchikov A., Dolinina O., Kushnikov V., Ivaschenko V., Kachur K., Bogomolov A., Filimonyuk L. The Problem of a Human Factor in Aviation Transport Systems. Indian Journal of Science & Technology, 2016, vol. 9, iss. 46, pp. 16–20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17485/i-jst/2016/v9i46/107351.
  14. Kushnikov V. A., Rezchikov A. F., Tsvirkun A. D. Сontrol in man-machine systems with automated correction of objectives. Meitan Kexue Jishu, 1998, vol. 26, no. 11, pp. 168–175.
  15. Adamovich K. Yu. Matematicheskaia model’ dlia prognozirovaniia znachenii pokazatelei bezopasnosti transportnoi sistemy [A mathematical model for predicting the values of safety indicators of the transport system]. Mathematical Methods in Technics and Technologies – ММТТ. Saratov, Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov Publ., 2015, no. 6 (76), pp. 146–151 (in Russian).