Izvestiya of Saratov University.

Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics

ISSN 1816-9791 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9005 (Online)

For citation:

Kushnikov V. A., Bogomolov A. S., Adamovich K. Y. Mathematical Model for Predicting the Safety Parameters of Regional Road Transport System. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, 2018, vol. 18, iss. 2, pp. 240-248. DOI: 10.18500/1816-9791-2018-18-2-240-248, EDN: XQFNSX

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0).
Published online: 
28.05.2018
Full text:
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Language: 
Russian
Heading: 
Computer Sciences
Article type: 
Article
UDC: 
510.67,519.673
DOI: 
10.18500/1816-9791-2018-18-2-240-248
EDN: 
XQFNSX

Mathematical Model for Predicting the Safety Parameters of Regional Road Transport System

Autors: 
Kushnikov Vadim Alexeevich, Institute of Precision Mechanics and Control Russian Academy of Sciences
Bogomolov Alexey Sergeevich, Saratov State University
Adamovich Kseniya Yu., Institute of Precision Mechanics and Control Russian Academy of Sciences
Abstract: 

The set of models for prediction the main safety metrics of Russian regional road transport system is developed. The main metrics are taken from the documents the state inspection of traffic safety. This set of models is based on system dynamics and includes the graph of cause-effect relations between variables of the system and the system of nonlinear differential equations. Solving this system allows to analyze the impact of external factors to the variables of models. The adequacy of models was verified using the official statistics of the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate. In this paper presented the forecast of the traffic accidents count. According to the obtained solution the modeling of the traffic accidents dynamics was implemented.

Key words: 
traffic accident
car
traffic safety
accidents
cause-effect approach
system dynamics models
Forrester’s model
Meadows model
References: 
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Received: 
09.01.2018
Accepted: 
26.04.2018
Published: 
04.06.2018
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