Izvestiya of Saratov University.

Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics

ISSN 1816-9791 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9005 (Online)

For citation:

Rezchikov A. F., Polyakov M. S., Kushnikov V. A., Bogomolov A. S., Dranko O. I., Putilov D. I., Stepanovskaya I. A. Mathematical models for analyzing and predicting the dynamics of the main characteristics of the road transport system with the correction procedure. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, 2025, vol. 25, iss. 4, pp. 578-588. DOI: 10.18500/1816-9791-2025-25-4-578-588, EDN: VXJDNT

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0).
Published online: 
28.11.2025
Full text:
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Language: 
English
Heading: 
Computer Sciences
Article type: 
Article
UDC: 
519.7
DOI: 
10.18500/1816-9791-2025-25-4-578-588
EDN: 
VXJDNT

Mathematical models for analyzing and predicting the dynamics of the main characteristics of the road transport system with the correction procedure

Autors: 
Rezchikov Alexander Fedorovich, V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS
Polyakov Maksim S., Federal Research Center “Saratov Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Science”
Kushnikov Vadim Alexeevich, Federal Research Center “Saratov Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Science”
Bogomolov Aleksey S., Federal Research Center “Saratov Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Science”
Dranko Oleg I., V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS
Putilov Daniil Ivanovich, Saratov State University
Stepanovskaya Iraida A., V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS
Abstract: 

This article discusses a set of mathematical models that utilize the system-dynamic approach. We have created a set of interconnected system dynamics models, enabling us to forecast key road safety indicators in Russia. These indicators were carefully chosen by referring to the regulatory documents of the State Traffic Inspectorate under the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Russia. The findings will be used to enhance the traffic control systems' software. 

Key words: 
road transport network
system dynamics models
safety
cause-and-effect relationship
analysis
forecasting
References: 
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Received: 
22.12.2024
Accepted: 
05.05.2025
Published: 
28.11.2025
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