For citation:
Khamutova M. V., Kushnikov V. A. A Model for Forecasting Characteristics of Floods Affecting the Value of the Caused Damage. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, 2017, vol. 17, iss. 2, pp. 231-238. DOI: 10.18500/1816-9791-2017-17-2-231-238, EDN: ZEVXCT
A Model for Forecasting Characteristics of Floods Affecting the Value of the Caused Damage
According to GOST (State Standard) characteristics of floods are selected that have influence on the extent of damage. Forecasting of such characteristics will improve the efficiency of liquidation of floods effects. On the basis of formal apparatus of system dynamics that takes into account the casual relationships between modeled variables a mathematical model is developed to forecast characteristics of floods. A graph of cause-effect relations that exist between modeled characteristics is constructed. The mathematical model is described by a system of first order nonlinear differential equations. The numerical solution of the system was obtained with the aid of Runge–Kutta method. Computational experiments were conducted that allowed to determine the modeled characteristics for different time intervals. Comparison of the characteristics calculated according to the model with their real values during the Primorski Krai's flood in August 2001 confirms the adequacy of the mathematical model. The results obtained can be used in the development of information systems of forecasting the flood effects for operative and dispatching personnel of the EMERCOM.
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