Izvestiya of Saratov University.

Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics

ISSN 1816-9791 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9005 (Online)

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Dmitriev P. O., Kharlamov A. V., Kazhanov I. V., Kirillova I. V., Kossovich L. Y., Falkovich A. S., Mikityuk S. I., Petrov A. V. Specification of prognostic models and software implementation of a calculator for predicting a fatal outcome in a combined pelvic injury. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, 2022, vol. 22, iss. 3, pp. 376-392. DOI: 10.18500/1816-9791-2022-22-3-376-392

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Specification of prognostic models and software implementation of a calculator for predicting a fatal outcome in a combined pelvic injury

Dmitriev Pavel O., Saratov State University
Kharlamov Alexander Vladimirovich, Saratov State University
Kazhanov Igor V., S. M. Kirov Military Medical Academy of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Kirillova Irina V., Saratov State University
Kossovich Leonid Yurevich, Saratov State University
Falkovich Alexander Savelievich, Saratov State University
Mikityuk Sergey I., S. M. Kirov Military Medical Academy of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Petrov Artem V., Saint-Petersburg Institute of Emergency Care n.a. I. I. Dzhanelidze

Based on the regression, factor and discriminant analysis of the depersonalized data of 1082 patients with combined pelvic injuries, prognostic logit models were developed, including such factors as age, the variant of the mechanism of pelvic injury, results of the assessment of the degree of impaired consciousness and coma on the Glasgow scale, and total quantitative scores of damage severity for each of the three commonly used scales (Yu. N. Tsibin's, VPH-P (MT), ISS). The resulting three models for each of the three scales of injury severity have almost equal prediction efficiency for the dependent variable “outcome”. The revealed regularities and the coefficient-formalized models for the predicting of the fatal outcome of  pelvic injury treatment formed the base for the software implementations in the forms of tables and the calculator. During the testing, the usability as well as the satisfactory prediction accuracy were confirmed.

The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Advanced Research (contract No. 6/130/2018-2021 of 01.06.2018).
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